Share Market Highlights 31 January 2025: Markets continue rally as Economic Survey predicts pro-growth Budget; Sensex leaps 740 pts to close at 77,500, Nifty ends above 23,500

Jefferies On Bank Of Baroda

Hold Call, Target Cut To Rs250/Sh

For Q3, Profit Was Ahead Of Estimates Aided By Lower Provisions

While Loan Growth Of 12% Was Healthy, NII Growth Of 3% Was Softened By Margin Fall

Feel Bank’s Higher Domestic LDR Might Limit Loan

Growth As Domestic Deposit Growth Is Softer

Asset Quality Stays Stable With Low Credit Cost

HSBC On Bank Of Baroda

Hold Call, Target Cut To Rs250/Sh

Q3 Core Fee Income And QoQ Improvement In Credit Costs Offset Pressure In NIM

Asset Quality Was Healthy

Change EPS Estimates By +4/-2.6/-3.6% For FY25/26/27 Respectively

Cut Is To Build In Further Pressure On NIM

EPS Growth Outlook Remains Muted

Nomura On GAIL

Buy Call, Target At Rs240/Sh

Results Sharply Miss Estimates On Lower Gas Marketing & Petchem Profitability

Gas Transmission EBIT Was 4% Below Estimates & Declined 2% QoQ

Adjusted Gas Marketing EBIT Was Sharply Below Estimate

LPG/LHC Segment EBIT Was Below Estimates

Trades At Attractive Valuations Of 10x FY27 P/E

Nomura On Dr LalPath Labs

Upgrade To Buy, Target At Rs3,315/Sh

Q3 Revenue In-line But EBITDA/Profit Below Estimates

Co Now Intends To Focus On Expanding Its Presence In Southern India

Co Has Not Undertaken Any Price Increases In Recent Past & Does Not Intend To Do So In Near Future

Recent Stock Correction Presents Limited Downside Risk

Nomura On Dabur

Buy Call, Target At Rs625/Sh

Q3 Was In-line With Expectations

Growth To Gradual Improve As Rural Improves & Urban Is Near Bottoming Out

Gradual Pickup In Sales Is Expected

HPC Sales +5.7%; Healthcare -1.3% While Beverages Was -10.3%

MS on Dabur

Maintain Equal weight, TP Rs531

Rural growth outperforms urban growth for 4th successive time

Inflation remains monitorable

Future margin imporvement will be offset by higher ad costs

Oral care to remain fastest growing segment

JPM on Dabur

Maintain Neutral TP Rs550 (from Rs580)

Healthcare and Beverage segment stay challenging

Soft Q3 volume growth, expect gradual pick up ahead

Expects mid-single digit revenue growth in Q4FY25

FY26 to see margin expansion aided by favourable base, cost saving and premiuimisation

Nomura On Tata Cons

Buy Call, Target At Rs1,250/Sh

Strong Delivery In Core; High Volume Growth In Tea, Strong Price Hike To Boost Overall Growth

Growth Business Growing 89% YoY On A Strong Wicket

OPM To Improve Going Forward On The Back Of Price Hikes

Stock Trades At 46x FY27 EPS

GS on Tata Consumer

Maintain Neutral, TP Rs1,040

Q3FY25 below estimates

Sharp margins decline in India business driven by tea inflation

Tea inflation likely to conitnue over next few quarters

Delivered stronger volume growth that HUL in tea business

Jefferies On Adani Ports

Buy Call, Target At Rs1,440/Sh

Q3 EBITDA 4% Above Estimates Driven By Higher SEZ Income

Management Maintained Their 10-14% YoY Volume Growth Guidance For FY25

10-14% YoY Volume Growth Guidance For FY25 Implies 17-35% YoY Rise In Q4

EBITDA Guidance Was Raised & Was Above Estimates

Logistics Potential Is A Sweetener

Bernstein on Adani Ports

O-P, TP Rs 1487

EBITDA beat consensus by 5% supported by strong $ in a weak vol growth quarter 

While PAT was a small miss by 3%, were surprised to see stock correct significantly despite a rise in EBITDA guidance for full year

CLSA on Adani Ports

O-P, TP Rs 1764

3QFY25: diversified mix helps; Containers help, rec PAT +14% YoY

Many strategic moves; delivered on deleveraging

Ebitda guidance raised

key bright spot was Hazira Port, which grew its volume 14% YoY.

Overall, Ebitda margin rose 146bps YoY in 3Q

CITI on Kalyan Jewellers

Buy, TP cut to Rs 650 from Rs 810

Revenue grew by 40% YoY (24% SSSG in India) & broadly in-line

EBITDA/PBT grew by 19%/23% YoY & was -1%/+6% vs Citi est.

Adjusted for Rs548mn custom duty impact, EBITDA/PBT grew by 33%/46% YoY.

CITI on JSPL

Sell, TP Rs 765

3Q standalone adj EBITDA rose 6% qoq – vol (+3%), realizations (+1%), offset in part by some cost increases

Standalone adj EBITDA/t: Rs10,700 vs Rs15,000 last yr

Investors will likely be concerned about newly announced capex of Rs160bn

Jefferies On BEL

Buy Call, Target At Rs370/Sh

Q3 EBITDA Was 51% Above Expectations, As Margin Rose To 28.7% Vs Expected 23.7%

Co Tends To See Quarterly Revenue & Margin Volatility Based On Deliveries

Management Retaining Vs Raising Guidance, Maintain Estimates

Margin Strength Gives Confidence On Profitability Sustaining

Nomura On BEL

Buy Call, Target At Rs363/Sh

Significant Operational Beat In Q3

FY25 Earnings Up 8%; Expect Heavy Ordering In Q4

Management Remains Conservative With No Change In Guidance For Sales/Margin

Raise FY25 EBITDA Margin/EPS By 200 bps/8% To Reflect Significant Beat In Q3

Stock Currently Trades At 30x FY27 EPS

Macquarie on BEL

Maintain Outperform, TP Rs350

FY25 order guidance maintained

Large value order lined up for FY26 (Rs25,000-50,000cr)

Continues to demonstrate healthy execution trends

Submarine components order could be another pipeline order

MS on BEL

OW, TP Rs 364

BEL is confident of meeting its F25 order inflow guidance of Rs250bn & has a strong pipeline of orders for F26 & beyond.

BEL aims to expand share of non-defense bis to 15% in next few years 

QRSAM order expected to be finalized by end of F26

HSBC On RR Kabel

Upgrade To Buy, Target At Rs1,600/Sh

After An Unexciting CY24, Co Looks Set To Return To A Strong Profit Growth Trajectory

Co’s Profit Growth Trajectory Is Materially Above Peers

Strong Profit Growth Outlook And Attractive Valuations Makes Us Constructive At Current Prices

Expect FY25-27 Revenue & EPS CAGR Of 18% And 46%, Respectively

Jefferies on SRF

U-P, TP Rs 2060

Mgmt sees signs of recovery in spec chem & improvement in domestic refgas prices

See gradual recovery in spec chem, flattish export prices in refgas & potential for domestic oversupply, note limited progress on new AIs & fluoropolymers

Nuvama On SRF

Buy Call, Target At Rs2,929/Sh

Q3 Earnings Led By Revived Momentum In Chemicals Biz After 6 Quarters Of Disappointment

EBITDA Beat Estimate By 6.3%, Largely Led By Margin Expansion In Chemicals Business To 24.3%

Packaging Films Reported A Stable Performance In A Tough Scenario

Likely Margin Improvements In Chemicals Biz Due To Better Ref-Gas Prices, Which Now Seems Sustainable

MS On PB Fin

Underweight Call, Target At Rs1,400/Sh

Adjusted EBITDA Was In-line In Q3

Cut FY25 Forecast & Expect Consensus To Do So Also

Core New Premium Growth Slowed More Than Expected, From Slower Savings

Steep Valuation Keeps Us Underweight

HSBC On PB Fin

Buy Call, Target At Rs2,530/Sh

Co Reported Robust Premium Growth & EBITDA Margin Expansion In Q3

Core-Operating Performance Was In-line

Medium-term Outlook On Business Growth & Profitability Remains Healthy

Est FY25-28 CAGR Of 27% In Revenue, EBITDA Margin Of 18% & Profit Margin Of 17% By FY28

CLSA on Restaurants Brands Asia

Maintain Outperform TP Rs109 (from Rs133)

Weaker sales offset by better margins

India store additions remain strong

Cut FY25-27 EBIDTA by 4-9% reflecting weaker Indonesia sales

Slower than expected growth for India business and additional store closures in Q3

CLSA on Voltas

Upgrade to Hold from Underperform, TP Rs1,375 (from Rs1,500)

Cut target multiple for UCP segment on weak margin and slowing growth

Resilient RAC demand and margin recovery should be key catalysts

Post recent stock correction upgrade has happened

Expect recovery in a seasonally better Q4

CLSA on Tata Motors

Maintain Outperform, TP Rs930

Sharp fall an opportunity to add

Current valuations building in weak fundamentals beyond FY26

13% FY27 Cash Flow Yield for JLR in current valuations

Near-term pessimism giving scope for long term investors to accumulate

Jefferies on Shree Cement

Maintain Buy, TP Rs30,670 (from Rs29,800)

Strong beat with industry best EBIDTA unit

Co also benefited from strong pricing in norther markets

Co focus on value focus strategy

EPS cuts seen due to co’s aggressive depreciation policy related to new expansions

JPM on Shree Cement

Maintain Neutra, TP Rs27,367 (from Rs27,300)

Value preference paying off

Strong costs control drive EBIDTA/ton

15MTPA capacity commissioning in Q1FY26

Modest price increases in north region should catch up with other regions

CITI on Shree Cement

Buy, TP raised to Rs 31000

At Rs9.5bn (15% ahead on lower costs), 3Q EBITDA fell 23% yoy – lower realizations (-9%) and volumes (-1%) offset the benefit of lower costs (-8%).

EBITDA/t: Rs1,080 vs. Rs780 in 2Q; Rs1,390 last year.

CLSA on L&T

O-P, TP Rs 4,151

Surprise 3Q – Set to beat 3 of its 4 guidance

Catalysts would be a rise in core E&C inflows and margin, as well as actions to improve return ratios

Believe its margin will improve in FY25-27 on lower legacy orders & maturity of execution

Bernstein on L&T

O-P, TP Rs 3,922

Delivered a quarter with Rs 1,160 Bn orders, up 53% y-o-y

Order inflow—stellar

Revenue — execution slowed down due to domestic environment

Margin-hope

Working capital position & returns – super strong

Co retained their guidance for full yr at 8.2%