Sensex, Nifty may open flat; India–US trade deal and major Q1 results in focus today

Derivative indicators show cautious optimism, with open interest concentrated near resistance levels of 25,300–25,500. Despite improved put writing, a low PCR reflects lingering bearishness.
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Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to remain lacklustre and may open on a positive note. Gift Nifty at 25280 signals a marginal gain for Nifty at open. With US President Donald Trump stating that the much-awaited US-India deal is close to signing, the focus will shift to the key proposals. Experts believe it will not be harsh for India and India Inc. 

Additionally, the focus will also be on key results and other macroeconomic indicators. 

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., said: Key global macro releases due on Thursday include the EUR CPI, UK unemployment, and US retail sales and jobless claims. Q1 results due today include Axis Bank, Wipro, Jio Financial, LTI Mindtree, HDFC AMC, Indian Hotels, among others. “We expect markets to consolidate with a positive bias, supported by improving rural and healthcare trends, and any progress on India–US trade negotiations. Stock-specific action will likely continue as the earnings season gathers pace,” he added.

Trading in the derivative segment also signals a cautiously optimistic mood among traders.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities

On the broader front, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have continued to build short positions in index futures, signalling ongoing institutional caution. “Without a noticeable shift in FPI stance, either through fresh long exposure or short covering, the index is likely to remain in a subdued trajectory,” he added.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst, Choice Broking, said: The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has improved slightly to 0.80 from 0.75, reflecting an uptick in put writing. However, the relatively low PCR still underline a bearish undertone in the market.

“Meanwhile, the India VIX, a key gauge of market volatility, declined by 2.09% to 11.24, reflecting subdued volatility but also rising uncertainty among market participants. In the derivatives segment, open interest (OI) data showed the highest call writing at the 25,300 and 25,400 strike prices, while the maximum put OI was concentrated at the 25,200 level. This positioning suggests strong resistance near the 25,500 zone. Nevertheless, the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, and a decisive close above this resistance level will be crucial to sustain the bullish momentum in the near term,” he added.

Meanwhile, equities across the Asia Pacific region are marginally up in early deals on Thursday.

Published on July 17, 2025