Nifty, Sensex slip for second day as caution prevails ahead of trade deal

Markets closed lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, with benchmark indices witnessing volatile trading as investors remained cautious ahead of the anticipated US-India trade agreement developments. The Nifty 50 index closed at 25,405.30, down 48.10 points or 0.19 per cent, while the Sensex ended at 83,239.47, declining by 170.22 points or 0.20 per cent.

The market opened on a flat note with the Nifty starting at 25,505.10 and the Sensex at 83,540.74. However, both indices faced selling pressure during the second half of the trading session after touching intraday highs.

“The Nifty index opened flat at 25,505 on Thursday, slipping to an intraday low of 25,384 before rebounding to touch a high of 25,587. However, the index witnessed renewed selling pressure from the day’s high during the second half of the session, ultimately ending on a subdued note,” said Sundar Kewat, Technical and Derivatives Analyst at Ashika Institutional Equity.

Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories emerged as the top gainer, rising 1.90 per cent to close at ₹1,295.00. Apollo Hospitals gained 1.77 per cent to end at ₹7,572.50, while Hero MotoCorp advanced 1.75 per cent to ₹4,318.00. ONGC gained 1.19 per cent to ₹243.95, and Maruti Suzuki rose 1.01 per cent to ₹12,750.00.

On the downside, SBI Life Insurance Company was the biggest loser, falling 2.87 per cent to ₹1,803.60. Kotak Mahindra Bank declined 2.03 per cent to ₹2,125.00, Bajaj Finserv dropped 1.40 per cent to ₹1,979.80, JSW Steel fell 1.26 per cent to ₹1,046.50, and Grasim Industries declined 1.24 per cent to ₹2,814.40.

“Markets traded volatile on the weekly expiry day and ended marginally lower, continuing the ongoing consolidation phase. After an initial uptick, the Nifty oscillated sharply in both directions while remaining within Wednesday’s trading range, ultimately closing at 25,405.30,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking Ltd.

Sectoral performance remained mixed, with Media and Consumer Durables leading the gains, while PSU Banks and Metals witnessed notable weakness. The Nifty Bank index declined 0.36 per cent to close at 56,791.95, while the Nifty Financial Services index fell 0.47 per cent to 26,734.90. The Nifty Next 50 index dropped 0.54 per cent to 68,355.85.

However, broader markets showed resilience with the Nifty Midcap 100 index managing to end marginally higher by 0.03 per cent at 59,683.25, indicating selective buying interest in mid and small-cap segments.

Market breadth remained balanced with 2,009 stocks advancing against 2,001 declining stocks on the BSE, where 4,168 stocks were traded. A total of 148 stocks reached their 52-week highs, while 54 stocks touched their 52-week lows. Eight stocks were in the upper circuit and 10 in the lower circuit.

“The domestic equity market continued to consolidate as profit booking followed last week’s sharp rally. Investors remain watchful of developments surrounding the potential U.S.–India trade agreement, with the 90-day pause nearing its end. FIIs have turned cautious in the recent days due to premium valuation,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited.

The Indian rupee gained significantly during the session, appreciating 0.38 per cent to close at 85.29 against the US dollar. “Rupee traded very positive with gains of 0.38 per cent at 85.29, supported by broad-based strength in domestic capital markets and continued weakness in the Dollar Index. The recent RBI rate cut has also added to rupee stability and is expected to cushion the currency on any corrective moves,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities.

In the commodities market, gold traded weak and volatile, fluctuating within ₹97,000-₹97,750 range. “Gold traded weak and volatile as prices fluctuated within ₹97,000 – ₹97,750, primarily due to rupee appreciation from 85.50 to 85.30 levels, which weighed on domestic prices despite global cues,” Trivedi added.

From a technical perspective, analysts noted that the daily RSI has slipped below the 60 mark, indicating a fading of momentum. “The benchmark Nifty ended in the red for the second consecutive trading session, reflecting a short-term pause in the ongoing uptrend. However, a key technical development is worth noting: the daily RSI has slipped below the 60 mark and is on the verge of a bearish crossover, suggesting that momentum is beginning to fade,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

“Technically, after an early morning intraday rally, the market faced resistance near 25,600/83,800 and reversed sharply. From the day’s highest levels, the market corrected over 200/600 points. A bearish candle on daily charts and a lower top formation on intraday charts indicate further weakness from the current levels,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

Looking ahead, market participants expect continued range-bound trading as uncertainty persists around the US-India trade agreement. “Nifty remained within the trading range of the previous session, forming an inside day bar on the daily timeframe. This inside bar reflects indecision among traders, as they await possible outcomes from the US-India trade deal. We expect the index to continue trading in a range over the coming days, as long as it stays within the 25,300–25,500 band,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. The market also awaits crucial US data releases, including Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures, which could provide fresh direction to global markets.

Published on July 3, 2025