First half of next year will be challenging, says Doordarshi India Fund’s Rajeev Agrawal – CNBC TV18
“Last week 39 out of the 41 countries – there was outflow from those countries and it was going into the US,” Agrawal said.
According to him, as policies from Donald Trump’s administration take effect, more funds will likely shift from emerging markets (EMs) and developed markets (DMs) to the US. However, he expects these flows to stabilise over time, shifting attention to specific stocks and markets.
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The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (December 17-18) is a key event, with most analysts predicting a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. Agrawal believes the real interest will come in January when Trump’s policies begin impacting the economy and the Federal Reserve’s decisions.
Agrawal remains optimistic about India’s banking and finance sector. He believes that from a valuation perspective, there are opportunities, as prices have corrected more than the intrinsic value of many companies. Among his holdings is Manappuram Finance, a stock that has performed well but faces regulatory constraints due to its Asirvad Microfinance subsidiary.
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“Gold loans are doing well, and the secured portions of the book, such as housing and vehicle finance, are growing steadily. However, the microfinance institution (MFI) segment remains a concern,” he said.
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