Bajaj Auto share price today: lead gains soaring 5%, brokerages offer mixed recommendations

Bajaj Auto stock soared nearly 5 per cent in early trade on Wednesday on recording an 8 per cent increase in consolidated net profit for the quarter ended December 2024 at ₹2,196 crore and an 8.24 per cent increase in revenue from operations to ₹13,169 crore, driven by EV segment and robust exports.

Despite the Q3 margins being in line with expectations, brokerages were split, issuing mixed calls on Bajaj Auto.

Mixed recommendations

Highlighting positive outlook, Nuvama Institutional Equities maintained buy rating at an unchanged target price of ₹10,700 per share. The brokerage emphasised that the EV segment’s contribution rose 22 per cent of domestic revenue, and EBITDA turned positive, due to better pricing/ scale, PLI incentives and cost savings. It added, “management has provided a positive volume outlook for the next three–six months, with exports growth at over 20 per cent and domestic growth of 6–8 per cent.

Nuvama anticipates better rural demand, positive urban demand, launches, better finance availability and a favourable base to drive growth in domestic volume. In addition, Nuvama estimates a recovery in exports at a 9 per cent CAGR over FY25–27E due to better demand in Latin America and Africa, and recovery in Asia. 

Elara Capital has revised its call from accumulate to “buy” at a lowered target price of ₹10,432 from ₹13,013 earlier. 

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley has retained an overweight call at a target price of ₹9,951.

Motilal Oswal, which maintained a neutral call on the stock at a target price of ₹8,770, said the long-term outlook for exports is skeptical given the adverse macro globally, although it revived in the near-term. The domestic brokerage has marginally lowered FY25/FY26 earnings estimates by 2 per cent each. 

Analysts of HDFC Securities quoted that Bajaj Auto’s Q3FY25 EBITDA margin at 20.2 per cent was ahead of its estimate of 19.9 per cent, but in line with the Bloomberg consensus estimate. The brokerage has maintained reduce rating at a target price of ₹8,108.

The brokerage is cautious due to higher competitive intensity in the EV segment leading to higher discounting, growth challenges in the CNG bike segment, and investments required in the captive financing subsidiary could be higher than expected. Emphasising Bajaj Auto’s plans to enter the e-rickshaw segment by the end of Q4FY25, targeting an addressable market of 45,000 units per month, HDFC Securities’ analysts remain wary of the margins in this price-sensitive segment.

Axis Capital has maintained sell call at a reduced target price of ₹7,550 from ₹8,000. The brokerage added that the Q3 EBITDA was in line with estimates, and flagged concern that despite launches, the company lost over 100 bps market share in 9M FY25.

In addition, Citi has maintained a sell call at a target price of ₹7,900.

Bajaj Auto shares traded among top gainers of Nifty 50 pack, 3.23 per cent higher at ₹8,669.95, after hitting an intraday high of ₹8,807.

On the BSE, the stock soared 3.27 per cent to trade at ₹8,667.10 as at 12.15 pm.